Weather Watch - Wind & Wireless

NEW YEAR'S EVE IMPACT: Cross-Country Arctic Front Meets Pacific Storm

A powerful arctic air mass continues southward across North America, while a Pacific storm system approaches California, creating complex holiday weather for New Year's Eve celebrations nationwide.

Active Storm Systems

Global Severe Weather Tracking - New Year's Eve 2025/2026

The Northern Hemisphere enters 2026 with powerful storm systems affecting multiple continents. Here's what's driving weather patterns as we ring in the New Year.

Bay Area / California: New Year's Eve Storm

Affected Area: San Francisco Bay Area, Central Coast, Northern California | Timeline: December 31 - January 2

Forecast: Atmospheric river bringing 1.5-3 inches of rain to Bay Area, 3-5 inches in coastal mountains. Sierra Nevada snow levels dropping to 4,500 feet with 1-3 feet of new snow above 6,000 ft. Gusty winds 30-45 mph, stronger on ridges.

Impact: New Year's Eve celebrations impacted by rain. Minor urban flooding, road closures in burn scar areas. Power outages possible from wind. Sierra travel difficult with chain controls.

North America: Cross-Country Arctic Blast

Affected Area: Rockies to East Coast, Northern Mexico | Timeline: December 30 - January 3

Forecast: Temperatures 10-20°C below normal for New Year's. Denver: -25°C overnight lows. Chicago: -20°C with wind chills to -30°C. Texas: Hard freeze warnings.

New Year's Impact: Outdoor celebrations curtailed. Times Square temperatures near -7°C (20°F) with wind chill. Major airport delays continuing.

North Atlantic: New Year's Bomb Cyclone

Location: 600 km east of Newfoundland | Pressure: 962 mb and deepening

Forecast: Rapidly intensifying low pressure system with central pressure dropping 28 mb in 24 hours. Hurricane-force winds (>130 km/h) affecting shipping lanes and transatlantic flights.

Impact: Major New Year's Eve flight disruptions across Atlantic. Wave heights exceeding 18 meters in open ocean. Coastal flooding along Canadian Maritimes.

Global New Year Celebrations Weather

Sydney, Australia: Clear skies, 24°C for fireworks | London: Cloudy, 4°C, chance showers
Tokyo: Partly cloudy, 2°C | Rio de Janeiro: Thunderstorms possible, 28°C
Dubai: Clear, 21°C | Moscow: Snow showers, -12°C

Notable: Sydney fireworks proceeding with ideal conditions. London Eye celebrations with typical damp chill. Brazil facing stormy celebrations.

Satellite & Data Intelligence

Latest Observations & Forecast Models - December 31

Current Global Satellite Overview

Infrared composite showing winter storm systems, atmospheric river impacting California, and global New Year's weather patterns

Satellite Imagery: Atmospheric River targeting California coast

Deep low pressure systems in North Atlantic and North Pacific

Arctic air mass covering central/eastern North America

Severe Weather

Tropical Systems

Winter Precipitation

Atmospheric River

Bay Area Detailed Forecast

New Year's Eve: Rain developing by afternoon, heavy at times. High 13°C (55°F). Wind SE 20-30 mph.
Midnight: Rain likely, 11°C (52°F). Fireworks visibility poor.
New Year's Day: Rain continuing, heavy morning. Total rainfall: 1.5-3 inches.

Hydrological Outlook

California snowpack expected to reach 140% of average after this storm. Sierra snow water equivalent increasing significantly. Colorado River basin snowpack improving but remains 85% of average.

Solar Activity

Solar Cycle 25 approaching peak. Increased geomagnetic activity affecting satellite operations. Aurora possible over northern US on New Year's Eve under clear skies. Increased HF radio propagation for amateur radio enthusiasts.

Regional Focus: California Atmospheric River

New Year's Eve Storm Impacts & Analysis

The incoming atmospheric river represents a classic "Pineapple Express" pattern, tapping into subtropical moisture near Hawaii. While not as intense as some historical events, its timing on New Year's Eve makes it particularly impactful for celebrations and travel.

Rainfall Totals Forecast

San Francisco: 1.5-2.5 inches
North Bay: 2-3.5 inches
Santa Cruz Mountains: 3-5 inches
Big Sur: 4-7 inches
Sierra Nevada: 1-3 feet snow above 6,000 ft

New Year's Eve Timing

3-6 PM: Light rain begins Bay Area
6-9 PM: Steady rain, increasing intensity
9 PM-1 AM: Heaviest rainfall period
Midnight: Rain likely across region
New Year's Day: Showers continue, heavy morning

Impact Areas

• Minor urban flooding in typical areas
• Recent burn scar debris flow risk (moderate)
• Coastal erosion during high tide
• Wind gusts 40-50 mph on ridges
• Sierra travel: Chain controls, delays
• Airport delays: SFO, OAK, SJC possible

Historical Context

This event resembles December 2005 (New Year's Eve storm) but with less intensity than the January 2023 atmospheric river. The combination of an active subtropical jet stream and a persistent blocking high over the Gulf of Alaska is directing moisture into California. While individual storms don't prove climate change, the increasing frequency of atmospheric rivers on the West Coast is consistent with climate model projections—warmer air holds more moisture (about 7% more per 1°C), leading to heavier precipitation when storms do occur.

New Year 2026 Outlook Update

El Niño Transition: The moderate El Niño continues weakening, with neutral conditions likely by late January 2026. This suggests increased potential for colder outbreaks in Eastern US and Europe during mid-winter, though January may start milder in the West.

January 2026 Temperature Outlook

California: Near normal temperatures, wetter than average
Eastern US: Colder outbreaks likely mid-to-late January
Europe: Increased cold air potential after mid-month
Increased volatility: Rapid temperature swings becoming more common

January Storm Track

Active Pacific storm track: Continuing into California
Nor'easter potential: Increasing mid-January East Coast
Drought improvement: Continued for California
Flood risk: Remains for already saturated areas

Forecast confidence: Moderate for first half of January, with higher uncertainty late January due to potential stratospheric warming events.

Climate Context: 2025 in Review

Connecting Year-End Weather to Annual Climate Patterns

2025 Global Temperature

2025 finishes approximately +1.32°C above pre-industrial, likely the warmest year on record. All top 10 warmest years have occurred since 2014. Arctic warming continues at 3-4 times global average rate.

2025 Hydrological Extremes

Record floods: Pakistan (July), Libya (Sept), California (Feb)
Severe droughts: Amazon basin, Southern Africa
Notable: Mediterranean "medicane" season active
Pattern: Increased "weather whiplash" globally

2025 Tropical Cyclones

Atlantic: 19 named storms (above average)
Eastern Pacific: Near average activity
Western Pacific: Extremely active season
Trend: Rapid intensification events increasing

The Big Picture: Increasing Volatility

2025 demonstrated the key trend for modern weather: increasing volatility. The atmosphere's increased moisture capacity (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) leads to more intense precipitation. Simultaneously, arctic amplification weakens the polar jet stream, increasing persistent weather patterns. The result is what researchers call "global weirding"—not just warming, but more frequent and intense extremes at both ends of the spectrum. As we enter 2026, this pattern shows no signs of abating, with climate models suggesting continued increase in hydrological extremes and temperature volatility.

Next Weather Watch Update: January 5, 2026. Tracking post-New Year storm systems and updated winter seasonal forecasts.

New Year's Safety Reminder

If celebrating outdoors tonight in affected areas: Bay Area residents should prepare for wet conditions with waterproof layers. Those in cold regions should dress in layers and limit skin exposure. Never drive through flooded roadways. Check local forecasts for fireworks display cancellations due to weather. Have a safe and happy New Year!